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2018-19 Season Stats

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  • 2018-19 Season Stats

    The purpose of this thread is for the posting and discussion of the 2018-19 season statistics. I have pre-allocated the first few posts within the thread for the latest stats to make them easier to find, but I will also post in the race threads so the progress is captured.

    Discussions of advanced math are strongly encouraged.

    Here is the current season schedule.

    Last edited by AndGoliath; 09-23-2018, 04:18 PM.

  • #2
    Current IOE as of Winter race 6 at Tomadego:



    The explanation of average IOE calculation is in previous posts (http://slotcarillustrated.com/portal...83&postcount=2 and http://slotcarillustrated.com/portal...48&postcount=8) and is not repeated here. The green-shaded values are the normalized ones we are using for determining the order.

    Note: the IOE has been calculated from the average of the IOE from the last five races attended by each racer. The orange-shaded IOEs from four-lane tracks have been normalized from a range of 40% to 100% to a range 60% to 100% (that of three-lane tracks) to make the overall average mathematically correct (averaging like values). Everyone's average IOE increased due to the normalization, but those whose average contained more four-lane results and those with one or more low scores at a four-lane track would have a larger increase.

    Green-shaded values are part of the IOE calculation. Orange-shaded values are for four-lane tracks and have been normalized to the green-shaded value to their left. The dropped columns show the previously included values. If your latest race IOE is higher than your dropped value, then your average IOE increases. If your latest race IOE and your dropped one are the same, then your average IOE stays the same. If your latest race IOE is lower than your dropped value, then your average IOE decreases. Your IOE position depends upon your average IOE relative to the other members. Even if you have a bad race, your average IOE can still increase based on the score you dropped.

    This post will be updated with the current values after each race.
    Last edited by AndGoliath; 03-18-2019, 06:29 PM.

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    • #3
      Full Fall/Winter Series

      These are the 2018-19 series standings as of the eighth winter race at Tomadaga:

      Last edited by AndGoliath; 04-14-2019, 04:04 PM.

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      • #4
        Winter Season

        Standings updated after winter race 8 at Tomadaga:



        Accumulated class results:

        Last edited by AndGoliath; 04-14-2019, 04:00 PM.

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        • #5
          Fall Season

          Standings updated after fall race 8 at Aldorado:



          The tie for sixth between Bob and Kenny is broken in favour of Bob due to a higher normalized season IOE (80.6% versus 77.7%).



          Class results:

          Last edited by AndGoliath; 12-09-2018, 10:53 PM. Reason: Updated with fall race 8 results

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          • #6
            Initial season IOE



            Green-shaded values are involved in the calculation. Orange-shaded results are the raw IOEs from four-lane tracks and were normalized to the green value to their left.

            1: 98.2% (97.9) Tom
            2: 88.2% (87.8) AJ *
            3: 81.3% (79.6) Brad
            4: 81.2% (78.7) Aaron ***
            5: 80.9% (75.9) Kim **/***
            6: 80.8% (78.8) Paul
            7: 80.53% (79.2) David
            8: 80.50% (78.8) Kenny
            9: 79.6% (73.7) Bob **/***/****
            10: 79.5% (77.0) Matt **
            11: 74.4% (69.1) Alan **
            12: 73.3% (62.7) RJ */**/***
            13: 73.2% (70.4) Colin *
            14: 70.2% (63.5) Kevin **
            15: 64.6% (61.4) Thomas ***
            16: 64.5% (50.8) Vaughn */**/***

            * Inactive racers (as far as I have heard)
            ** Average contains multiple normalized four-lane results
            *** Average contains one or more significantly normalized results (> 10%)
            **** Bob's score was incorrectly calculated. One of his recent scores was missed and it reduced his IOE.

            Note: the IOE has been calculated from the average of the IOE from the last five races attended by each racer. The IOE from four-lane tracks have been normalized from a range of 40% to 100% to a range 60% to 100% (that of three-lane tracks) to make the overall average mathematically correct (averaging like values). The raw average (non-normalized) is in parentheses. Everyone's average IOE increased due to the normalization, but those whose average contained more four-lane results and those with one or more low scores at a four-lane track would have a larger increase.

            Interesting result: we have eight racers with an IOE within 2% of each other (79.5 to 81.3%). This means we will be having significant "churn" in the order leading to varied match-ups.

            The corrected starting IOE chart including Bob's Silverado-W4 result is

            Last edited by AndGoliath; 09-10-2018, 11:44 AM.

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            • #7
              Math

              Thanks Shadow.

              Perhaps for the less initiated, me included you coulda show us the new formula of the rolling5 round average plus the normalization factor you applied?

              Thanks, eh!

              Comment


              • #8
                Three/Four Lane IOE Conversion

                Normalized IOE in %= (Four-lane IOE in % - 40) * 2 / 3 + 60%

                Examples:

                FLS FLI NI ETLS
                64 40% 60% 90
                80 50% 67% 100
                96 60% 73% 110
                112 70% 80% 120
                128 80% 87% 130
                144 90% 93% 140
                160 100% 100% 150

                FLS: Four-lane score (out of 160)
                FLI: Four-lane IOE (FLS / 160 * 100%)
                NI: Normalized IOE (see formula above)
                ETLS: Equivalent three-lane score (out of 150 = NI * 1.5)

                If you went to a four-lane track and were getting mostly third and fourth place finishes, you would end up with a race IOE of around 50%. If you had gone to a three-lane track and were getting mostly second and third place finishes, you would get a race IOE around 70%. The normalization increases your four-lane race IOE to a value within the 60% to 100% IOE range of three-lane tracks. This makes the average IOE calculation more meaningful as it is using numbers from within the same range. If the ranges do not match, then the average is skewed by the relative number of values in the different ranges. #trustmeIknowwhatIamdoing

                Your average IOE is the average of the three-lane and normalized IEOs for the last five races you attended.
                Average IEO = (last IOE + penultimate IOE + antepenultimate IOE + preantepenultimate IOE + prepreantepenultimate IOE) / 5 {I made that last one up}

                I'll post the table showing the scores I used to calculate the IOE when I have time. I do not have an image sharing account and I am currently working on getting my test track ready for hosting.
                Last edited by AndGoliath; 09-03-2018, 11:22 AM.

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                • #9
                  Fall race 1 IOE

                  Unfortunately, Bob's average IOE leading into today's race was miscalculated and he ended up running in too low a position in the order. I have to manually enter the scores due to people missing races and missed one of his scores. Next race we can make him run in the position he was supposed to this time to make up for it.

                  Current IOE as of Fall race 1 at Silverado



                  The explanation of average IOE calculation is in previous posts (http://slotcarillustrated.com/portal...83&postcount=2 and http://slotcarillustrated.com/portal...48&postcount=8) and is not repeated here. The green-shaded values are the normalized ones we are using for determining the order.

                  1: Tom - his new IOE value is the same as his dropped one => no change to IOE or position.
                  2: Paul - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE and position (from 4th).
                  3T: Kenny - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE and position (from 6th).
                  3T: Brad - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE, but decrease in position (from 2nd).
                  5: David - his new IOE value is lower than his dropped one => decrease in IOE, but same position.
                  6: Aaron - his new IOE value is lower than his dropped one => decrease in IOE and position (from 3rd).
                  7: Bob - his new IOE value is lower than his dropped one => decrease in IOE and position from 4th/7th).
                  8: Matt - did not race => IOE and position unchanged.
                  9: Alan - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE, but maintains position.
                  10: Kevin - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE, but maintains position.
                  11: Thomas - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE, but maintains position.

                  We have eight racers with an IOE within 2.4% of each other (79.5 to 81.9%). Despite the close scores in this race, the mid-pack IOE range increased (from 2%) due to the effect of the scores being dropped. Interestingly enough, the normalized ranking is the same as the unnormalized one. We can ignore the voodoo math for one race.
                  Last edited by AndGoliath; 09-23-2018, 04:20 PM.

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                  • #10
                    Fall race 1 stats

                    Standings updated after fall race 1 at Silverado:



                    Class results:

                    Last edited by AndGoliath; 09-10-2018, 02:15 PM.

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                    • #11
                      Fall Race 2 IOE

                      Current IOE as of Fall race 2 at Mugello:



                      The explanation of average IOE calculation is in previous posts (http://slotcarillustrated.com/portal...83&postcount=2 and http://slotcarillustrated.com/portal...48&postcount=8) and is not repeated here. The green-shaded values are the normalized ones we are using for determining the order.

                      1: Tom - his new IOE value is lower than his dropped one (rechecks numbers ... yup, that's right) => decrease in IOE, but no change in position.
                      2: Aaron - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE and position (from 6th).
                      3: Bob - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE and position (from 7th).
                      4: David - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE and position (from 5th).
                      5: Kenny - did not race => IOE unchanged, but decrease in position (from tie for third).
                      5: Brad - did not race => IOE unchanged, but decrease in position (from tie for third).
                      7: Matt - did not race => IOE unchanged, but still managed to move up a position (from 8th).
                      8: Paul - his new IOE value is lower than his dropped one => decrease in IOE and position (from 2nd).
                      9: Alan - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE, but maintains position.
                      10: Kevin - his new IOE value is lower than his dropped one => decrease in IOE, but maintains position.
                      11: Thomas - did not race => IOE and position unchanged.
                      Last edited by AndGoliath; 09-23-2018, 04:03 PM.

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                      • #12
                        Fall race 2 stats

                        Standings updated after fall race 2 at Mugello:



                        Class results:

                        Last edited by AndGoliath; 09-23-2018, 04:14 PM.

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                        • #13
                          Fall race 4 IOE

                          Race 4 was run before race 3 due to attendance issues. Current IOE as of Fall race 4 at Aldorado:



                          The explanation of average IOE calculation is in previous posts (http://slotcarillustrated.com/portal...83&postcount=2 and http://slotcarillustrated.com/portal...48&postcount=8) and is not repeated here. The green-shaded values are the normalized ones we are using for determining the order.

                          1: Tom - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE, but no change in position 'cause he can't get no higher than #1.
                          2: Brad - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE and position (from tie for fifth).
                          3: David - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE and position (from 4th).
                          4: Bob - his new IOE value is lower than his dropped one => decrease in IOE and position (from 3rd).
                          5: Aaron - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE, but drop in position (from 2nd).
                          6: Paul - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE and position (from 8th).
                          7: Matt - did not race => IOE and position unchanged.
                          8: Danny - slots in here after his first race.
                          9: Kenny - his new IOE value is lower than his dropped one => decrease in IOE and position (from tie for fifth).
                          10: Alan - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE, but decrease in position (from 9th) due to Danny slotting in higher.
                          11: Kevin - did not race => IOE unchanged, but decrease in position (from 10th) due to Danny slotting in higher.
                          12: Thomas - his new IOE value is higher than his dropped one => increase in IOE, but decrease in position (from 11th) due to Danny slotting in higher.
                          Last edited by AndGoliath; 10-14-2018, 06:42 PM.

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                          • #14
                            Fall race 4 stats

                            Race 4 was run before race 3 due to attendance issues. Standings updated after fall race 4 at Aldorado:



                            Danny is shown as Guest 1.

                            Movers are as follows:

                            Paul moves up to 4th.
                            Alan moves up to 5th.
                            Aaron drops to 6th.
                            Brad moves up to 7th.
                            Kenny moves up to 8th.
                            Kevin drops to 9th.
                            Danny slots in at 11th.
                            Matt drops to 12th.

                            Tom, David, Bob, and Thomas are unchanged.

                            Class results:

                            Last edited by AndGoliath; 10-21-2018, 03:32 PM.

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                            • #15
                              Lifetime stats update (races 1, 2, and 4)

                              It's time to catch up on some lifetime stat changes so far this year.

                              F1 - Silverado
                              Ken ended his current ironman streak at 14 races here. This ties him in 7th place all-time, but he also holds 1st place with 34 consecutive races.
                              David moved into 3rd place all-time with 18 consecutive races.

                              F4 - Eldorado
                              Tom now has 8 consecutive race day wins tying him with his previous second-place streak. One more and he ties his previous high streak of 9 consecutive race day wins.
                              Paul currently has a streak of 10 consecutive 100+ point days (9th place tie with AJ). He also holds 5th place with 15 days.
                              Brad has a streak of 8 consecutive 100+ point days (10th place). He also holds 4th place with 21 days.
                              Ken's consecutive top 5 streak ended at 6 race days tying him with David in 9th position all-time. Ken also holds 5th place with 8 race days.
                              Last edited by AndGoliath; 10-14-2018, 07:55 PM.

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