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2018-19 Season Stats

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  • #46
    Winter race 1 series standings update

    These are the 2018-19 series standings as of the first Winter race at Mugello:



    The standings are currently dominated by those missing the least races. Three races into the Winter season will show a more balanced picture once the majority of the club has a complete set of ten race scores to count.
    Last edited by AndGoliath; 01-06-2019, 07:22 PM.

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    • #47
      9 rounds in - how does that compare against last year at this time?

      Good afternoon gents,
      Last year at this time was when started turning our sights towards the end of the season. Having just passed the ˝ way mark in the season, I thought it’d be a good time to kick up the hot stove talk and mid-year report cards.


      After some quick analysis, and looking at the very same point last year, I did a quick year over year look at things. While it’s become apparent just how tight things have become, here’s some insight as to why:
      If you look closely, just at pure scoring, you can see David, Alan, Kevin and Thomas have all made big jumps in their scoring. I'm sure having their home tracks part of the rotation has helped, but the kinder touch from Brother Love aka Kevin has made an impact.


      We’ve all come to know the Shadow means biznatch this year with an improved raw IOE of 7.63% But looking at this year’s movers and shakers, Alan has certainly stepped it up. His raw IOE over 8 races this year is a solid 75.08% (916/1220), which compared to last year’s IOE is up 9.27% (2017-18: 65.81%).


      And interestingly and quietly, Thomas is steadily making headway as well … up a whopping 10.14% against last year’s 58.88%. But would you believe it, Brother Love’s current raw IOE of 71.2 4% is up by 10.38%...tops in the club!


      So in terms of improvements, Kevin, Thomas and Alan get A+’s, and we’ll give the Shadow a very arbitrary A-.


      One thing is took away from looking at the total points this far into the season (year over year), there’s a few of us who’ve slipped, depending on which column you look at….but it’s very negligible to flat at best.


      And then looking at the best rounds being counted, starting with say 6 rounds counting up to 8 rounds, again – year over year, 9 rounds into the season…it’s even flatter, unless you’re one of those 4 golden boys from above.
      Another way of saying we have parity through a good chunk of the club.


      The other thing I started to look into was our new 5 race rolling IOE, which adjusts or normalizes for 3 lane tracks. Last year, we had a 2 races I can think of where we had a top guy flip to the bottom of the order to gain some very high numbers. This year, the rolling average seems to have addressed that issue.


      But what I was curious about was how that rolling average, which can still be affected by adding or dropping a bad race within it, could game the system. Below you’ll see a chart of where people were seeded vs their results.
      Above I flagged any changes more than 3 spots. Why 3 you ask? Well we generally race on 3 laners so the thinking was if you drop out of your grouping of 3, either good or bad. The good/improvements are marked in blue with a drop being marked in yellow.


      Now obviously, the relative strength of the chosen race classes of the day, or the track being raced on can & will influence things, but it does paint an interesting picture. After a quick scan, I can see Aaron improving on his home track in the last race after being seeded lower. Thomas and Alan on theirs, so it does pay to be part of the rotation. But if you factor those 4 (of the 14 instances) out, I looked to see if anyone in the “hook” position (seeded 3 on a 3 laner or 4th on a 4 laner) benefitted from being the hook. Net result was zero!


      In fact, those in the hook had 4 instances of dropping by 3 or more places?! (Danny’s from round 7 is not noted since he’s not a FT racer). And while it’s not detailed here, I did look to see if the hook position managed to nab a race day podium – again to see if there was any benefit to being the hook. Net result was it’s happened three times – twice by David – once in round 2 at Mugello and again at, round 4 at Al-Dorado, while Paul achieved this in round 8 at Al-Dorado as well.


      One thing to note and I'm sure the Shadow will agree, the higher you move up in the rankings, the harder it is to avoid a drop, since there’s nowhere to go but down. Just think of the first time you moved up in the seeding and raced against all the top guys, it’s a tough road to hoe….at least at first until you get used to the competition.


      In terms of consistency, obviously the more variability between your seeding and actual results the lower your consistency. Aaron while he had 3 good days, also had a couple of off days. Brad, Bob & Kenny managed to net theirs out. But you can see both Thomas, Kevin and Alan had more good days than not all supporting their overall improvements this year.


      The one thing to take away from this seeding analysis is look at your position and think how to defend it, especially when parity seems to be setting in. To me, every heat is becoming more of a battle with closer less predictable racing now. And the results are showing it…just look at the latest scores from last weekend.
      4th place – 122, 5th place – 120, 6th place – 118, 7th place – 116….that’s just a change of one heat’s finishing position…so easy to drop from 4th to 7th or vice versa!


      Anyways, if you’re curious like me, the numbers are interesting and do seem to support the general consensus of closer more competitive racing which can only be good.

      Comment


      • #48
        Driver of the Day (DoDj

        As I first mentioned in the Winter around 2 thread, and shown above - your driver side of the day by round (biggest moves up the pack from where a driver was seeded to their actual tound finishing position.

        Fall
        Silverado Round 1 - tie- Ken and Bob, both moving up 3 positions
        Mugello Round 2 - Bob, moving up 2 positions
        Dartschleife Round 3 - Ken, moving up 5 positions!
        Al-Dorado Round 4 - tie- Paul, Brad, and Alan, moving up 3 positions each
        Silverado Round 5 - Aaron moving up 5 positions
        Tomadega Round 6 - Thomas, an incredible 7 positions!!
        Dartschleife Round 7 - Tie - Aaron and a Thomas, both moving up 3 positions
        Al-Dorado Round 8 - Alan moving up 4 positions

        Winter
        Mugello Round 1 - Aaron up 6 positions
        Tomadega Round 2 - Ken moving up 5 positions
        Silverado Round 3 - Matt moving up 2 positions
        Dartschleife Round 4 - Alan moving up 2 positions
        Al-Dorado Round 5 - Alan moving up 4 positions
        Tomadega Round 6 -Thomas moving up 3 positions
        Silverado Round 7 - Aaron moving up 4 positions
        Tomadega Round 8 -

        After 15 rounds, Alan and Aaron lead the way, each with 4 Driver of the Day (DoD), followed closely Thomas and Ken tied with 3 each, followed by Bob with 2, and then Matt, Brad and Paul each with one.
        Last edited by Giddyup; 04-01-2019, 07:23 PM.

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        • #49
          Winter race 2 results with race 1 update

          Standings updated after winter race 2 at Tomadaga:



          Accumulated class results:



          An error was detected with the recorded results of the first Mugello race. Kevin and Brad were both scored as finishing third (6 points) in the last heat of Group 5. Due to the passage of time I have scored each as having received 7 points (the average of the second and third place). This is why they have an odd total score for the Group 5 class, this race, and the season. Here are the updated race results:

          Last edited by AndGoliath; 01-20-2019, 09:23 PM.

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          • #50
            Winter race 2 IOE

            Current IOE as of Winter race 2 at Tomadaga:

            Comment


            • #51
              Winter race 2 series standings update

              These are the 2018-19 series standings as of the second Winter race at Tomadaga:



              The standings are currently dominated by those missing the least races. Three races into the Winter season will show a more balanced picture once the majority of the club has a complete set of ten race scores to count.

              Comment


              • #52
                Winter race 3 results

                Standings updated after winter race 3 at Silverado:



                Accumulated class results:

                Comment


                • #53
                  Winter race 3 IOE

                  Current IOE as of Winter race 3 at Silverado:

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Winter race 3 series standings update

                    These are the 2018-19 series standings as of the third Winter race at Silverado:



                    Most drivers have a full slate of scores. Now the drops start coming into play.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Winter race 4 results

                      Standings updated after winter race 4 at the Dartschleife:



                      Accumulated class results:

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Winter race 4 IOE

                        Current IOE as of Winter race 4 at the Dartschleife:

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Winter race 4 series standings update

                          These are the 2018-19 series standings as of the fourth Winter race at the Dartschleife:

                          Last edited by AndGoliath; 02-10-2019, 09:15 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            2018-19 Series Points as of the 12th Race

                            Here is some data from which Tom can speculate on the series points. The right-most columns indicate the possible range of finishing order for the 2018-19 series, the points necessary to get the maximum result (assuming others do not improve their scores), points to reach one position less than your current maximum, points to reach two positions less than your current maximum, and the points necessary to hold your current position assuming those below you get maximum scores (there are only 610 points left so if you need more than that, your scores are highlighted orange).

                            Tom has locked up first place. The rest of the positions are still in play. I have highlighted the points necessary to reach higher positions based on your average and high score.

                            Last edited by AndGoliath; 02-16-2019, 10:48 AM. Reason: Added more position analysis

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                            • #59
                              Down the wire!

                              So 12 rounds in, over 11,000 laps raced and we still have a legitimate six or more way battle for 3rd. Wow!

                              After looking at David’s table, what jumps out to me is for those like Kenny, Alan and Thomas who have raced their 10 races already, they’ve all got some scores around low 100’s that can be dropped. Meaning that one day around a 120 is quite a big move up the standings. Two of those, and well ... we need a bigger podium.

                              The last 4 races are all at different tracks. And next round at Al’s will be different again since he has that “new” corner. It’s hard to tell without seeing people’s IOE’s by track so far this year, but by all accounts I’d expect Thomas, Alan, Brad and Aaron to have decent showings at their home tracks...so there’s one good score to count. Key for them is doing at least one more time out of the other 3 races.

                              Pauly is there in the mix...or should I say laying in the weeds. He has his work cut out to catch Aaron. Does he have another late season surge to repeat last year’s final heat results snatch away the place, this time from a different Aa-Ron?

                              Fozzy who’s been back and rounding (no pun intended) back into form. He’ll take whatever he can steal at this point but could throw a wrench into everyone’s best laid plans and play the role of spoiler.

                              And then there’s your possible X-factors. First up, Brad. He’s got a nice cadre of high scores already in his pocket and needs just 4 average rounds in the teens to put himself in the hunt for 3rd overall. Bobby is in similar state, albeit Arizona...so his return date may prohibit him from racing in all 4 final races...

                              But all of that’s just talking about 3rd overall. Every one of our regular racers is also in the hunt for 4th?!

                              Other than track IOE, including home track advantage, it would be interesting to see driver’s individual Class IOE this year too. I think the best possible mix would be to race your weakest classes at home or best IOE tracks given your advantage there and your best classes “on the road” or at your lower IOE tracks. To me that’s the best upside potential. Or maybe it would be better to double down with your best classes on your best tracks, and just go for a big pay day?

                              By the way, we race nearly every class 2 more times in the last 4 rounds and that includes Host class twice more; just one final spin for the “slow-bee” classes of Fly Classics, Nascar and TransAm - somewhere...Kenny just started tearing up.

                              Besides track and class, who you’ll be paired up against in the race rotation are the other two determining factors. As far as who you race next to, the rolling 5 race IOE average will could come into play.

                              It would be interesting to see who has some high rounds that will be “coming off the books” in the next few rounds. Essentially, a high score round coming off the books could help lower your seeding. Although, with the parity we’ve seen this year, if you’re outside the top 3/4 seeds, I don’t think it really matters like it used to.

                              We’ve always had a few down to the wire finishes each year, but never have we all of the club all in the mix!

                              Thanks again for doing the stats David, much appreciated to see how close of a race to finish it will be.

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                              • #60
                                Winter race 5 results

                                Standings updated after winter race 5 at Aldorado:



                                Accumulated class results:

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